If you are thinking about making a move in 2018 you are certainly wondering about the 2018 economic forecast for Glendale and Beyond. Leslie Appleton Young, chief economist for The California Association of Realtors (CAR) puts out an awesome forecast every year. Young’s accuracy track record is impressive and I eagerly look forward to her report every year.
The following is a recording of a recent recap I gave to the DIGGS Team. It was filmed, live, so please forgive the imperfections! If you are more of a reader/skimmer, show notes are below the video.
If you already know 2018 is your year to move, now is the perfect time to do some advance planning! If you want to transform your potential PROFIT from selling, click the button below for your free consultation.
Show Notes (Statewide Results)
Results for 2017 (as of October 2017)
- Market is up 1.4%
- Median price is up ($525.6k vs $502.3k)- and increase of 4.3%
- Housing affordability is down 2$ (31% vs 29%)
- GDP (national) is up (1.6% vs 2.2%)
What to Expect
- Economy will grow and California will do better than the nation
- Rates go up, affordability will go down
- Inventory will remain low
- More formally owner occupied homes will convert to rentals
Why is the Inventory so Low?
- Boomers aren’t moving or they are renting rather than buying
- Millennials are leaving the state to “get a life”
- Large groups bought huge packages of homes in the downturn and did not put them for sale. They kept them as rentals
- New construction is very slow
- Existing homeowners have a low mortgage and don’t know where they can go
2018 Forecast Numbers
- Number of Sales will go up 1% (422,000 vs 425,000)
- Median Price will rise 4.2% ($538,500 vs $561,000)
- Affordability Index will decrease from 29% to 26% (fewer people will be able to afford a median priced home)
- 30yr Fixed Rate Mortgage will increase (4% to 4.3%)
2018 may be the “last gasp” for home buyers for this economic cycle. While there is always the possibility that we might see a recession beyond 2018, the combination of today’s prices and interest rates are likely to still spell a win for today’s buyers. Buyers tend to focus on price, but interest rates are a HUGE factor in a home’s affordability.
Home Sellers are in a unique position. Demand is likely to remain strong for the foreseeable future. Therefore there is less pressure for you to sell “now”, but many home sellers are also home buyers! If you are in that position, you would benefit from an assessment and strategy meeting with us. Let’s find out how to get you to your next ideal place!